Glossary and References

Key terms, mathematical methodologies, and foundational literature.

🏛️ Convexity Desk Terminology

Tiered Drawdown Governor

A mechanical risk-management multiplier designed to prevent catastrophic ruin. It tracks your portfolio's High-Water Mark (HWM) and automatically scales down your base risk capacity as your account draws down.

  • Tier 1 (0 to -5% DD): 1.0x Base Risk
  • Tier 2 (-5% to -10% DD): 0.5x Base Risk
  • Tier 3 (-10% to -15% DD): 0.25x Base Risk
  • Tier 4 (<-15% DD): 0.0x (Hard Stop)

Monte Carlo Simulation

A probabilistic risk model that takes your historical win rate, average win, and average loss, and reshuffles those outcomes across 10,000 hypothetical 1-year trajectories. It explicitly reveals your Risk of Ruin (the probability of blowing up your account) and your expected median drawdown based on your actual historical edge.

3D Options Topography

Rather than looking at a flat 2D PnL chart at expiration, Topography maps the options Greeks (Gamma, Theta, Vega) across three dimensions: Underlying Price, Days to Expiration (DTE), and Implied Volatility. It visualizes the "Gamma Cliffs" and "Theta Sinks" that trap novice option sellers before expiration.

Qullamaggie Episodic Pivot (EP)

A highly specific breakout setup popularized by Kristjan Kullamägi. It requires a massive fundamental catalyst (e.g., surprise earnings, FDA approval) resulting in a massive gap up (>10%) accompanied by extreme relative volume (>5x). Convexity Desk tracks these in the GOAT Alpha Engine.

13F Accumulation Base

A long-term structural setup identified by tracking SEC 13F filings of elite proprietary firms (e.g., Duquesne Family Office). When institutional volume accumulates a stock sideways for months, we flag it in the GOAT Oven waiting for a breakout.

đź“š Foundational Literature

The quantitative models powering Convexity Desk are built upon decades of institutional research. Below are public whitepapers and literature that define our mathematical engine.

Options & Volatility Risk Premium

Portfolio Sizing & Risk Management

âť“ Frequently Asked Questions (Q&A)

Why doesn't Convexity Desk sync directly with my broker API?
Direct broker APIs are highly unstable, prone to breaking during platform updates, and create massive data privacy liabilities. By requiring manual or CSV ledger entry, we ensure 100% data privacy (Air-Gapped) and zero downtime due to third-party API failures. You own your data.

Does Convexity Desk provide automated trading bots?
No. Convexity Desk provides Signals (via the GOAT Alpha Engine) and Risk Math (via the Drawdown Governor). We are an institutional toolkit, not a black-box trading algorithm. Execution remains entirely in the hands of the discretionary trader.

How accurate is the Monte Carlo Simulator?
It is mathematically pure, but it relies entirely on the accuracy of your historical inputs (Win Rate, Avg Win, Avg Loss). If you feed it a ledger of undisciplined, random trades, the simulation will show a high Risk of Ruin. It reflects your actual mechanical edge, not theoretical potential.

What is the difference between the Sandbox and the Live Portfolio?
The Educational Sandbox uses pre-loaded dummy data to allow you to safely experiment with position sizing and stress-test the math. The Live Portfolio is an empty schema where you can upload your actual historical CSV trade log to map your real-world equity curve.

The Glossary ensures all Convexity Desk operators share a unified, institutional vernacular. We do not gamble; we execute math.